一年一度的NFL大数据碗，今年的预测目标是通过两队球员的静态数据，预测该次进攻推进的码数，并转换为该概率分布；
竞赛链接https://www.kaggle.com/c/nfl-big-data-bowl-2020
项目链接，该项目代码已经public，大家可以copy下来直接运行https://www.kaggle.com/holoong9291/nfl-big-data-bowl
github仓库链接，更多做的过程中的一些思考、问题等可以在我的github中看到https://github.com/NemoHoHaloAi/Competition/tree/master/kaggle/Top61%25-0.01404-zzz-NFL-Big-Data-Bowl
一些基本概念美式足球：进攻方目的是通过跑动、传球等尽快抵达对方半场，也就是达阵，而防守方的目的则是相反，尽全力去阻止对方的前进以及尽可能断球；
球场长120码(109.728米），宽53码（48.768米），周长是361.992米；
球员：双方场上共22人，进攻方11人，防守方11人，进攻方持球；
进攻机会：进攻方共有四次机会，需要推进至少十码；
进攻方：进攻方的职责是通过四次机会，尽可能的向前推进10码或者达阵，以获得下一个四次机会，否则就需要交出球权；
防守方：防守方则是相反，尽可能的阻止对方前进，如果能够断球那更好，直接球权交换；
handoff：传球；
snap：发球；
橄榄球基本知识点我了解；
QB：四分卫，通常是发球后接球的那个人，一般口袋阵的中心，但是也不乏有像拉马尔-杰克逊这样的跑传结合的QB，目前古典QB代表是新英格兰爱国者NE的汤姆-布雷迪；
RB：跑卫，通常发球后进行冲刺、摆脱等，试图接住本方QB的传球后尽可能远的冲刺；
球场码线图
字段信息：
GameId - a unique game identifier - 比赛ID
PlayId - a unique play identifier -
Team - home or away - 主场还是客场
X - player position along the long axis of the field. See figure below. - 在球场的位置x
Y - player position along the short axis of the field. See figure below. - 在球场的位置y
S - speed in yards/second - 速度，码/秒
A - acceleration in yards/second^2
Dis - distance traveled from prior time point, in yards
Orientation - orientation of player (deg) 球员面向
Dir - angle of player motion (deg) 球员移动方向
NflId - a unique identifier of the player - NFL球员ID
DisplayName - player's name - 球员名
JerseyNumber - jersey number - 球衣号码
Season - year of the season
YardLine - the yard line of the line of scrimmage
Quarter - game quarter (1-5, 5 == overtime) - 当前是第几节比赛，5为加时
GameClock - time on the game clock - 比赛时间
PossessionTeam - team with possession - 持球方
Down - the down (1-4) - 达阵
Distance - yards needed for a first down - 距离拿首攻所需距离
FieldPosition - which side of the field the play is happening on
HomeScoreBeforePlay - home team score before play started - 赛前主队分数
VisitorScoreBeforePlay - visitor team score before play started - 赛前客队分数
NflIdRusher - the NflId of the rushing player
OffenseFormation - offense formation
OffensePersonnel - offensive team positional grouping
DefendersInTheBox - number of defenders lined up near the line of scrimmage, spanning the width of the offensive line
DefensePersonnel - defensive team positional grouping
PlayDirection - direction the play is headed
TimeHandoff - UTC time of the handoff - 传球时间
TimeSnap - UTC time of the snap - 发球时间
Yards - the yardage gained on the play (you are predicting this) - 目标
PlayerHeight - player height (ft-in) - 球员身高
PlayerWeight - player weight (lbs) - 球员体重
PlayerBirthDate - birth date (mm/dd/yyyy) - 生日、岁数
PlayerCollegeName - where the player attended college - 大学
Position - the player's position (the specific role on the field that they typically play) - 场上位置
HomeTeamAbbr - home team abbreviation - 主队缩写
VisitorTeamAbbr - visitor team abbreviation - 客队缩写
Week - week into the season
Stadium - stadium where the game is being played - 体育场
Location - city where the game is being player - 城市
StadiumType - description of the stadium environment - 体育场类型
Turf - description of the field surface - 草皮
GameWeather - description of the game weather - 比赛天气
Temperature - temperature (deg F) - 温度
Humidity - humidity - 湿度
WindSpeed - wind speed in miles/hour - 风速
WindDirection - wind direction - 风向
定义问题回归预测，Target是码数，但是最终结果需要转换为条件概率分布；
Evaluation FunctionContinuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)；
项目流程分享 定义模型输出结果到概率分布的转换类